Analysing economic data and seasonality using line graphs and a scatter graph
(Using CANSIM data dating back to 1946)

E-STAT provides graphing tools to help us explore relationships among data variables.

The following example analyses the economic impact of tourism in relation to the Balance of payments. We will review the concept of seasonal effect. Also, we will complete a scatter graph. The scatter graph is used to examine relationships.

Accessing E-STAT

You can access E-STAT on Statistics Canada's website at http://www.statcan.gc.ca under Learning Resources or directly at http://estat.statcan.gc.ca.

Finding the right table

• From the E-STAT sidebar select Search CANSIM.
• In the search field enter the table number 376-0003 and click Search. (The title of the table is "Balance of international payments, current account, quarterly").

Selecting characteristics

• Under Receipts, payments and balances, select Receipts.
• Under Current account, select Travel. (You have to scroll down using the bar on the right to find it).
• Under Geographic area, select All countries.
• Go back in time as far as you can. (Reference period: From: Jan 1946)
• Click on Retrieve as individual Time Series
• Click Retrieve now.

This will generate a graph that looks like the following:

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 376-0003, using E-STAT (distributor)

Analysis 1

Is there an increase or decrease in Travel receipts? ____________________________________
Answer

At which time of the year are travel receipts at their highest? Why? ____________________________________
Answer

Display the data as a percent change year-to-year

Go back to the previous screen.

In order to remove the effect of seasonality, let's compare each quarter to the same quarter of the previous year. The seasonal adjustment is a statistical technique used to remove the effect of normal seasonal fluctuations in data so underlying trends become more evident. Click on Manipulate data.

After the statement frequency of the output data will be, choose from the list percent changes, year-to-year and click Retrieve now. This will generate a graph that looks like the following:

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 376-0003, using E-STAT (distributor)

Analysis 2

In which year was there an amazing increase in the value of travel receipts? Explain why ___________________________________
Answer

Tourism seems to have somewhat of a cycle. How long does the tourism cycle last? ____________________________________
Answer

Adding more series to our list

Get back to the previous screen.

• Select Add more series
• In the search field enter the table number 387-0003. (The title of the table is "Employment generated by tourism, quarterly")
• Under Seasonal adjustment, select Unadjusted
• Under Activities, select Food and beverage services (or Air transportation, or Accommodation…)
• Go as far back in time as you can (Reference period: From: March 1986)
• Click on Retrieve as individual Time Series
• Under SCREEN OUTPUT formats select Scatter graph with line of best fit (linear regression) and click Retrieve now at the bottom of the page.

This will generate a graph that looks like the following:

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 387-0003, using E-STAT (distributor)

Analysis 3

Is there a relationship between employment in food and beverage services and international travel? ____________________________________
Answer

Note: The line of best fit for the data (linear regression) is drawn as a dotted line.

When travel receipts are low, why is there still employment in food and beverage services? ____________________________________
Answer

Copy the graph into a word processing document.